Tagged: Dodgers
Dodger of the Day- August 13, 2012
Today’s choice for “Dodger of the Day” is easier than coming up with reasons to mock the garish sculpture in the left-centerfield area in the otherwise spectacular looking new ballpark in Miami. The obvious choice is lefty Chris Capuano, whose magnificent effort on Sunday helped the Dodgers win the rubber game of a three game set in Miami.
Capuano threw eight innings of shutout ball, fanning 10 and not allowing a hit until Jose Reyes’ single in the seventh. Capuano’s 10 strikeouts marked the second time this year he’s had double-digit punchouts (he fanned 12 White Sox in a Dodgers’ 2-1 win at home against Chicago on June 17th). The win made Capuano 11-8 on the year, marking the fourth time in his career that he’s had at least 11 wins. Capuano’s career high in wins came back in 2005 when he won 18 games for Milwaukee. He totalled 11 wins in both 2006 (for Milwaukee) and 2011 (for the New York Mets).
The win was only Capuano’s seventh in 22 decisions in the month of August in his career. Capuano’s mothly win/loss totals are as follows:
April 15-8
May 10-14
June 16-9
July 12-14
August 7-15
Sept/Oct 8-12
Yesterday’s game marked only the second time in the veteran lefty’s career where he’s thrown at least eight innings of shutout ball while allowing two or fewer hits and striking out at least 10 opponents. Last August 26th while pitching for the Mets, Capuano threw a complete game two hit shutout while fanning 13 in a 6-0 New York win over Atlanta.
Matt is on the Mark
With a National League leading 20 home runs heading into tonight’s game with the Reds, Matt Kemp is one of the hottest players in baseball and a legitimate contender for all-star consideration and even MVP honors. Kemp’s 20 home runs in the Dodgers’ 67 games so far ranks among the best starts for a home run hitter in LA Dodger history. Among Los Angeles Dodgers with at least 31 home runs in a season, Kemp’s mark is behind only Gary Sheffield’s 20 home runs in 66 games in the 2000. The top ten list for Dodgers who were the quickest to 20 homers is as follows:
Sheffield 20 hrs in 66 games in 2000 (43 on the year)
Shawn Green 20 hrs in 67 games in 2002 (42)
Kemp 20 hrs in 67 games in 2011
Steve Garvey 20 hrs in 75 games in 1977 (33)
Pedro Guerrero 20 hrs in 77 games in 1985 (33)
Adrian Beltre 20 hrs in 78 games in 2004 (48)
Green 20 hrs in 80 games in 2001 (49)
Mike Piazza 20 hrs in 81 games in 1996 (36)
Eric Karros 20 hrs in 86 games in 1996 (34)
Karros 20 hrs in 86 games in 1997 (31)
(above found on Baseball-Reference.com)
Of Kemp’s 20 homers on the year, seven have come so far in June. With over half the month left to go, Kemp has a good shot at beating his personal best of nine homers in a month (set in August 0f 2009). Eight of Kemp’s homers have come at Dodger Stadium, and half of his round tripper have come with no one on base (eight have come with one one, one with two on and one was a grand slam). Seven of the homers have come on 1-0 counts, with four coming on the first pitch of an at-bat. Only three Dodgers have been driven in on Kemp homers so far this year. Fellow outfielder Andre Ethier has come home five times on Kemp blasts, with Jamey Carroll and Aaron Miles being brought home three times each.
Perhaps tonight’s matchup against Cincinnati’s Bronson Arroyo will help Kemp continue his power-hitting prowress. In 20 lifetime at bats against the lanky Reds’ righty, Kemp has a .400 batting average with two homers.
Matt Kemp and the Eight Dwarfs
I had a chance to listen to a small part of yesterday’s D0dgers-Reds game on XM radio. The feed was from the Reds’ network and while I was listening, the Reds’ crew was bemoaning the fact that Cincinnati’s usually reliable bullpen had let the one Dodger player who could beat them (Matt Kemp) do so. Kemp’s two homer performance brought the Dodgers back from a 7-2 deficit and with a little help from his friends, the team picked up a much needed 11-8 win in 11 innings.
Kemp’s two homer, six RBI game was the first ever by a Los Angeles Dodger against Cincinnati and the first overall for the team since Andre Ethier hit three homers and drove in six against Seattle on June 26, 2009. The two blasts gave Kemp 15 homers on the season, second in the National League behind the Reds’ Jay Bruce (who has 17). Of all National League players who lead their team in homers, Kemp has the highest percentage of his team’s home runs on the year:
Kemp (LA) 15 hrs team- 44 (34%)
Soriano (CHC) 12 hrs of team’s 40 (30%)
Bruce (Cin) 17 hrs of team’s 63 (27%)
Stanton (FL) 13 hrs of team’s 50 (26%)
Howard (Phl) 12 hrs of team’s 47 (26%)
Pujols (Stl) 12 hrs of team’s 51 (24%)
Ludwick (SD) 8 of team’s 35 (23%)
Beltran (NYM) 9 of team’s 39 (23%)
Pence (Hou) 8 of team’s 38 (21%)
McCutcheon (Pit) 9 of team’s 43 (21%)
Espinosa (Was) 1o of team’s 50 (20%)
Fielder/Braun (Mil) 13 each of team’s 65 (20%)
Tulowitzki (Col) 11 of team’s 56 (20%)
Huff (SF) 8 of team’s 43 (19%)
Upton (Az) 11 of team’s 66 (17%)
Prado (Atl) 8 of team’s 57 (14%)
The “Kemp and the dwarfs” theme of the post probably isn’t fair to Ethier and, when healthy, Rafael Furcal, but it seems apparent that as Kemp goes, so go the Dodgers in 2011. Kemp’s day helped offset a less than stellar performance by ace starter Clayton Kershaw, who gave up six runs.
Kemp’s big game might have gone for naught if not for the contributions of three of his teammates. Jamey Carroll, Aaron Miles and Tony Gywnn Jr. combined to go 9 for 13 on the day with six runs scored. Carroll’s four hit game was the second of 2011 and the eighth of his career. Miles drove in three runs in a game for the eighth time in his career and for the first time since last August 10th when he had three RBI for St. Louis against Pittsburgh. Gwynn had his first multi-hit game since April 9th, a stretch in which he had only seven hits in 66 at bats.
Kershaw Goes Old School to Beat Marlins
Sunday was a day for rare occurrences at Dodger Stadium. First and foremost, the Dodgers’ 8-0 win gave the team their first home series win since before Easter. The Dodgers also registered a season high 17 hits, with the suddenly hot Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier and Jay Gibbons contributing three hits each. The game also marked the second complete game shutout in emerging star lefty Clayton Kershaw’s Major League career. Kershaw’s pitching game score of 92 was his career high, beating the 84 he registered in a 2-0 win over Colorado in May of last season, and the 83 marks he posted in 2009 and 2010 (his other complete game shutout) over San Francisco.
While a complete game shutout for a Dodger starter is now about as common as an Aaron Miles home run, there was a time when pitchers finished what they started for Los Angeles. On May 29, 1972, Don Sutton picked up a complete game victory in a 5-2 win at Candlestick Park against the Giants. Sutton’s win made him a perfect 7-0 on the year. He’d pick up his eighth win in his next start before losing for the first time on June 9th at home against the Pirates.
The complete game outing was one of a career high 18 for Sutton on the season, a year in which he’d post Cy Young Award worthy numbers (19-9 record, 2.08 ERA, nine shutouts). Unfortunately for Sutton, 1972 was the year that Steve Carlton went 27-10 for the hapless Phillies and easily won the award for the National League’s best pitcher.
Sutton’s nine shutouts on the season was the second most ever for a Los Angeles Dodger starter, trailing only the 11 picked up by Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax in 1963. For his career, Sutton’s 156 complete games trail only Don Drysdale (with 167) among Los Angeles Dodger pitchers.
For Don Sutton, the crowning achievement of his Major League career was his selection to the Baseball Hall of Fame. The story of Kershaw’s career is in its beginning chapters, but the lanky lefty has shown the dominance that might someday earn him a spot among the Dodgers’ all-time greats on the mound. With a 6-3 mark and a sub-3.00 ERA so far in 2011, Kershaw’s season appears to be headed in the right direction. Maybe yesterday’s Dodger win, made possible in large measure by the young Texan’s sterling effort, will get his team headed that way as well.
It Takes (More Than) Two
Today’s Dodgers 2-1 loss to the Astros was disappointing on many levels. First, the loss meant that that the team dropped a series to the team with the most losses in the National League and the second most in Major League Baseball. Also, the game continued a trend of anemic work at the plate by a team that is doing that type of thing at a disturbing rate.
The game marked the 22nd time this season in 51 games (43%) that the Dodgers have scored two or fewer runs in a contest. Their record in those games is, not surprisingly, 3-19.
Looking at Dodgers’ teams over the past 20 years, only one team (the 99 loss squad in 1992) has come close to a 43% rate of games with two or fewer runs scored. In 1992, the Dodgers had a whopping 68 such games (42% of the team’s 162 games played) and posted an 8-60 record when scoring two or fewer runs.
Some observers may have seen the 2011 meltdown coming after watching the Dodgers’ relative futility at the plate last season. In 2010, Los Angeles had 57 games (35%) in which it scored less than three runs. The Dodgers posted a fairly respectable 23% winning percentage in the games (better than all Dodger teams over the past 20 years except for the 2003, 1998 and 1994 squads), but the 57 three or fewer run contests ranked third worst over the 20 year span.
The 2011 Dodgers have the look of a team that is adrift at sea and if the team’s offensive struggles continue, we could be watching a potential 100 loss season unfold before our eyes.
Two Can Also Be a Lonely Number
Fans of the Milwaukee Braves in the 1950’s invoked the mantra of “Spahn and Sain, and pray for rain” to express their extreme confidence in the front end of the team’s pitching rotation, and their extreme concern over the quality of the back end of the rotation. For the Dodgers in 2011 there’s no catchy phrase to demonstrate fans’ joy when Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are at bat and their trepidation when the other seven players in the lineup are at bat, but the void between Kemp/Ethier and the rest of the Dodgers’ hitters is wider than former umpire Eric Gregg’s strike zone.
Using the OPS+ tool to track a player’s performance, Ethier (at 168 through Saturday before his homer today) and Kemp (at 172) are 77 points better than the team’s overall 93 OPS+ rating. Granted it is just Mother’s Day and things can change drastically over the next four and a half months, but the 77 point difference, if it holds up, would be the largest since the Dodgers began playing their home games at Dodger Stadiium in 1962.
The largest gap between the top two performers and the team’s overall average for a full season for the Dodgers since 1962 came in 1997 when Mike Piazza (185) and Raul Mondesi (140) averaged a 163 OPS+, which was 62 points higher than the team overall number of 101. Other large gap seasons include:
2000 61 point difference
Gary Sheffield 176/Todd Hundley 143 Avg 160 Team overall 99
2001 60 point difference
Gary Sheffield 164/Shawn Green 154 Avg 159 Team 99
1995 60 point difference
Mike Piazza 172/Eric Karros 145 Avg 159 Team 99
1985 60 point difference
Pedro Guerrero 181/Mike Marshall 140 Avg 161 Team 101
1990 59 point difference
Eddie Murray/Kal Daniels 154 Avg 156 Team 97
The lofty numbers Ethier and Kemp are putting up this year give the slugging outfielders a chance at joining the ranks of the elite for the Dodgers in the OPS+ category for a season. Since 1962, the best figure was Piazza’s 185 in 1997, followed by Guerrero’s 181 in 1985, Sheffield’s 176 in 2000, Piazza’s 172 in 1995 and Reggie Smith’s 167 in 1977.
The Dodgers’ 93 overall number so far this year is poor, but is far from the worst in team history since 1962. In 2003, the Dodgers’ overall OPS+ was 79, and the team posted an 81 overall OPS+ in 1987.
A Diamond in the Rough
A 6-8 start that has featured less than clutch hitting, inconsistent pitching and plenty of key injuries has made the start of the 2011 season less than pleasing for most Dodgers’ fans. We are having the chance, however, to witness what appears to be the start of something very big for Dodgers’ centerfielder Matt Kemp.
With the caveat in place that judging Kemp’s 2011 performance on 14 games is patently ridiculous, the talented outfielder has started the season in exemplary fashion. Kemp’s .449 average, nine RBI and eight stolen bases (in nine attempts) lead the team, and he’s behind only Rod Barajas in home runs (Barajas has three to Kemp’s two).
Kemp has the chance to become the first player in Los Angeles Dodgers’ history to lead the team in the three Triple Crown categories and in stolen bases in a season. Nine Dodgers’ have led the team outright in three of the four categories since 1958:
1982- Pedro Guerrero led in avg (.304), HR (23) and RBI (100). Steve Sax led in steals with 49.
1983- Guerrero again led in the Triple Crown categories (.304, 32, 103) while Sax’s 56 steals paced the team.
1987- Guerrero led in the Triple Crown categories (.338, 27, 89) with Sax leading in steals with 37.
1988- League MVP Kirk Gibson led the team in average (.290), homers (25) and RBI (76) with Sax’s 42 steals pacing the Dodgers.
1993- Mike Piazza’s Triple Crown category numbers led the way (.318, 35, 112) with Brett Butler leading in steals with 39.
1994- Piazza led the way with a .319 average, 24 homers and 92 RBI,with Delino Deshields and Butler leading in steals with 27 during the strike-shortened season.
1997- In his finest year, Piazza’s .362 average, 40 homers and 124 RBI led the Dodgers, with Raul Mondesi capturing the team stolen base title with 32.
2001- Shawn Green led in homers (49), RBI (125) and steals (20), but lost out to Paul Loduca (.320) in batting average.
2004- Adrian Beltre’s monster season included a team leading .334 average, 48 homers and 121 RBI. Cesar Izturis led in steals with 25.
Two other Dodgers deserve mention in this discussion. In 1979, Steve Garvey tied for the team lead with 28 homers and paced the team with a .315 average and 110 RBI. The top base stealer in 1979 was Davey Lopes with 48. In 1972, Willie Davis tied Frank Robinson with a team-high 19 homers and led the team with 79 RBI and 20 steals, but Manny Mota led the way in batting average with .323 (in 371 at bats).
One aspect of Kemp’s game that appears to be vastly improved in 2011 is his base running, with much of the credit being given to new Dodgers’ first base coach Davey Lopes. Kemp’s current career stolen base success percentage is 74%, but there’s evidence that the number will get much better under Lopes’ leadership.
Lopes not only preaches efficent and effective use of the stolen base, he practiced it as well. Lopes is second in all-time stolen bases for the Dodgers with 418, but he leads the way in success rate among the top team LA Dodger base stealers:
Maury Wills 490 steals 74% success rate
Davey Lopes 418/83.1%
Willie Davis 335/74%
Steve Sax 290/69%
Brett Butler 179/65%
Bill Russell 167/71%
Raul Mondesi 140/72%
Juan Pierre 134/77%
Ken Landreaux 119/68%
Dave Roberts 118/82.5%
A Thorn In Our Side
Try to think of the opposition players who have ruined the most Dodger baseball games for you. Long-time fans probably remember the dynamic duo of Willie Mays and Willie McCovey for the hated Giants. Fans of the Dodgers in the 1970’s saw more than enough of Joe Morgan, Pete Rose, Johnny Bench and the entire Big Red Machine, and don’t get those of us who are older fans (or former Dodger manager Tommy Lasorda for that matter) started regarding Reggie Jackson of the Yankees. St. Louis’ Jack Clark and Ozzie Smith ruined a couple of otherwise wonderful days in October 1985, and cocky collection of New York Mets’ stars in the mid to late years of the decade of the 80’s got under many a Dodger fans’ skin. In the 1990’s, we were frustrated by the pitching excellence of Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, and experienced the agony of watching Barry Bonds excel against the Dodgers for what seemed to be a century.
In my book, there’s one player who seemingly has ruined more games than others for me. He’s not an unlikeable player and in fact when rumors of his possibly being traded to the Dodgers came about years ago, I was excited about the possibility of his coming to Los Angeles. He’s no longer even the best player on his own team, being replaced by his squad’s all-world shortstop, a five tool outfielder and an ace pitcher as the faces of the franchise. I’m talking, of course, about Colorado’s Todd Helton who contributed mightily to some indigestion I experienced on Wednesday when the Rockies finished off a two game sweep of the Dodgers. Helton’s three run homer on Wednesday helped the Rockies to a lead they wouldn’t give up and while the blast was the 42nd he’s hit against Los Angeles (the most against any one team), it seemed like number 422 to me.
Chad Billingsley gave up the homer to Helton on Wednesday, but he already became a member of this less than desireable Mile High Club in 2010 when he gave up a solo blast to Helton at Coors Field on August 28th. On Wednesday, Billingsley joined Odalis Perez (5), Chan Ho Park (4), Eric Gagne (2), Jeff Weaver (2), Hideo Nomo (2) and Scott Proctor (2) as Dodger pitchers who have given up multiple home runs to the Rockies’ slugger. A total of 30 Dodger pitchers have been taken deep by Helton while pitching for the Dodgers, including four current Los Angeles pitchers (Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda and Jonathan Broxton). Ten of Helton’s first 14 homers against the Dodgers came at Dodger Stadium but of late, he’s done his damage against the Blue Crew at home with 26 of his last 28 coming at Coors Field.
Part of following a team is also following its closest rivals and while Helton has brought a lot of pain to Dodger fans in general and me in particular over the years, I have enjoyed watching him play. The homers against the Dodgers are coming less frequently for the lefthanded hitter now (Helton’s hit only nine since 2006 after slugging 14 from 2003 through 2005), but Wednedsay’s drive showed that some of the old magic is still there. I wish that he’d just display that magic against the Giants, Padres or Diamondbacks.
Remembering Dodgers’ Opening Day Heroes
The Los Angeles Dodgers enter today’s 2011 opener against San Francisco with a 26-27 record in the first game of seasons since the team moved to Los Angeles in 1958. And while the team’s overall record in openers is the definition of mediocre, there’s been no shortage of superb performances by Dodgers’ players in those games. Here’s a look at some of the best individual performances by the boys in blue in season opening games.
1960- LA 3 Cubs 2
Don Drysdale was known for his toughness, durability and power pitching. All of those attributes were on display in the first game of 1960, as Drysdale threw an 11 inning, 14 strikeout complete game to earn the win. Drysdale’s heroics might have gone for naught if not for the unexpected contribution of Chuck Essegian. Essegian hit the only walk-off homer of his Major League career to win the game for Los Angeles in the bottom of the 11th.
1964- LA 4 Cardinals 0
Sandy Koufax was synonomous with dominance on the pitching mound in the mid-60s, and the eventual World Series champion Cards experienced that first hand in the opener of 1964. The Dodgers’ Hall of Famer shut the Cards out with a complete game, five strikeout performance.
1965- LA 6 @ Mets 1
Speedy Willie Davis provided many thrills for Dodgers fans during his time in Los Angeles, and his three hits, including a double and a homer, led the Dodgers to a victory in the first game of 1965.
1969- LA 3 @ Reds 2
Bill Singer won 20 games for the Dodgers in 1969, but his contribution in the opening game of that season came out of the bullpen. Singer threw three innings of one hit ball to earn the only save he’d get as a Dodger (he had only two in his Major League career).
1974- LA 8 Padres 0
The 1974 Dodger team was one full of players with star power, and the talents of two of those stars were on display in this rout of the Dodgers’ neighbors to the south. Don Sutton’s complete game, eight strikeout performance kept the Padres at bay at the plate, and fan favorite Jimmy Wynn had three hits, including a homer, and drove in three runs to pace the Dodgers’ attack.
1978- LA 13 @ Braves 4
Rick Monday is remembered by many as the player who saved the flag from being burned on at Dodger Stadium in July 1976 and by others as a long-time Dodger broadcaster. Monday was also, however, a very good player in his days in Los Angeles. In the opener of 1978, the left-handed hitting outfielder’s four hits (including a double and a homer) and four RBI led the team to victory. The homer was one of eight Monday would hit in April 1978.
1981- LA 2 Astros 0
Youth was served at Chavez Ravine in 1981 as precocious lefty Fernando Valenzuela dominated the Astros in a complete game shutout performance. The eventual Rookie-of-the Year would go on to win his first eight games, throwing five shutouts in the process, in one of the best starts for a pitcher in a season in Major League history.
1982- LA 4 Giants 3
A game ending hit is at the top of the list of exciting things to watch for baseball fans and when that hit comes against an arch-rival, the excitement is taken to a new level. In 1982, Dusty Baker’s bases loaded RBI single gave Los Angeles a victory over the hated Giants. Baker would enjoy an All-Star season in 1982, hitting .300 wiht 23 homers and 83 RBI.
1983- LA 16 @ Astros 7
The Houston Astrodome was known as a pitchers’ park, but the hometown team and its fans may have disputed that following the 1983 season opener. Kenny Landreaux (three hits and a career high tying six RBI) and Pedro Guerrero (a homer with five RBI) turned the game into a slow-pitch softball-like hitfest as the Dodgers won in a rout.
1986- LA 2 Padres 1
In a year when he’d post his only 20 win season, Fernando Valenzuela got off to a good start with a complete game victory over San Diego. The Dodger lefty shut San Diego out through the first eight innings, but had to retire Bruce Bochy on a groundout with the tying run on base in the top of the ninth to secure the win.
1990- LA 4 Padres 2
Hubie Brooks played only one year in a Dodger uniform, but he got that year off to a great start as his three run homer in the bottom of the eighth gave Los Angeles a 4-2 comeback win. Brooks would hit 20 homers and drive in 91 runs for Los Angeles in the 1990 campaign.
1995- LA 8 @ Marlins 7
Raul Mondesi’s monster game (three hits, including two homers, and four RBI) helped the Dodgers build an 8-2 lead, and the bullpen hung on to secure the win despite surrendering five runs in the final two innings.
1999- LA 8 Diamondbacks 6
It’s hard to top the 1999 season opener for dramatic action and once again, Raul Mondesi was the opening day hero. Mondesi’s two out, three run homer in the bottom of the ninth tied the game at 6-6 and his two out two run homer in the bottom of the 11th won the contest for the Dodgers.
2001- LA 1 @ Brewers 0
Two Dodgers in their final seasons in Los Angeles led the team to victory in the season opener in Milwaukee. Chan Ho Park, who would go 75-49 in his final five years as a Dodger, was the pitching star with seven innings of shutout ball. At the plate, Gary Sheffield’s sixth inning homer was all that was needed to gain the win. Sheffield’s final year in LA would be a strong one, as the talented outfielder hit .300 with 36 round trippers and 100 RBI.
2003- LA 8 @ Diamondbacks 0
In this battle of well-known starting pitchers, the Dodgers Hideo Nomo outdueled a less than effective Randy Johnson of Arizona. Nomo’s complete game performance was one of the high points of his very successful 2003 campaign, a year that would see him win 16 games.
2008- LA 5 Giants 0
Former Giant Jeff Kent’s two run homer in the first inning got things off on the right foot, and Brad Penny and three relievers did the rest as Los Angeles dominated San Francisco.
Can a 20 Year 20 Win Drought End for the Dodgers in 2011?
Flash back to the 1990 season. Tommy Lasorda was the Dodgers’ manager, the team’s rotation included iconic lefthander Fernando Valenzuela and its regular lineup included Hall of Famer Eddie Murray and current Major League managers Mike Scioscia and Kirk Gibson. On October 1st of that season, something happened that hasn’t happened for the Dodgers in the 20 seasons since then. When Murray sent the Dodger Stadium crowd home with a game-ending RBI single to score pinch-runner Jose Offerman, the Dodgers had captured a 2-1 win over San Diego and starter Ramon Martinez had won his 20th game of the season. In the 20 seasons since 1990, no Dodger pitcher has reached the 20 win pinnacle.
Since 1990, there have been 66 instances of pitchers winning 20 games, 29 in the National League and 35 in the American League. The best a Dodger pitcher has done since then came when Kevin Brown (1999) and Chan Ho Park (2000) won 18 games in back to back seasons.
For a franchise that was often defined by its excellence on the mound, the 20 year drought is puzzling. From the team’s first year in Dodger Stadium in 1962 through Martinez’ gem of a season in 1990, Los Angeles had 15 instances of 20 win seasons. Hall of Famers Sandy Koufax (3) and Don Drysdale (2) combined for five 20 plus win seasons from 1962-1966, and 10 other pitchers in Dodger blue reached the 20 win mark from 1969 through 1990 (with lefty Claude Osteen winning 20 in both 1969 and 1972).
Why haven’t the Dodgers been able to produce a 20 win pitcher in a generation? In the 29 20-plus win seasons for National League pitchers since 1991, the pitchers’ teams have averaged 94 wins. The Dodgers have had five 90 plus win seasons since 1991, but the most wins by a pitcher during those seasons came in 1991 when Martinez followed up on his 20 win season in 1990 by winning 17.
While pitching for a good team is certainly a major factor in a pitcher’s opportunity to win 20 games, not all 20 game winners in the National League since 1991 have pitched for playoff-level teams. In 1992, soon to be Hall of Famer Greg Maddux won 20 for a Cubs team that finished with 78 wins. Other instances of top level performances by pitchers taking the hill for mediocre teams included Dontrelle Willis winning 22 for the 83 win Florida Marlins in 2005, Brandon Webb winning 22 for the 82 win Arizona Diamondbacks in 2008 and Adam Wainwright capturing 20 of the St. Louis Cardinals’ 86 wins in 2010.
Of course, the more games a pitcher starts the better his opportunity to win 20 games. The four man rotations of the 1960’s era Dodger squads led to Koufax averaging 40.66 starts in his three 20 plus win seasons and Drysdale starting 83 games combined in seasons where he won 20 or more games. However, there have been 20 win seasons for the Dodgers in years when pitchers started roughly the same number of games as recent vintage Dodgers starters. Tommy John went 20-7 in only 31 starts for the 1977 National League champion Dodgers, Martinez won 20 in only 33 starts for the 1990 team and Osteen’s 20 victories in 1972 came in only 33 starts.
Of the current Dodger pitchers, lefty Clayton Kershaw (who was two and a half years old when Martinez won his 20th game in October 1990) appears to be the player best suited to bring a 20 win pitcher back to Los Angeles. Kershaw won only 13 games in 2010, but he easily could have had a much higher win total. In his nine no-decisions, Kershaw allowed three or fewer runs in seven of the games. The talented lefty also lost games in 2010 by 2-0 (twice), 3-0 and 2-1 scores. Kershaw’s Wins Above Replacement level number of 4.4 in 2010 was well below the WAR numbers posted by many Dodgers’ 20 game winners (Koufax’s 10.8 WAR numbers in both 1963 and 1966 are the highest during the period), but was in the same range as John’s 4.8 figure in 1977 and ahead of Martinez 4.1 in 1990, Al Downing’s 4.0 WAR when he won 20 in 1971 and Don Sutton’s 3.1 WAR in 1976 when he went 20-11.
Will the long wait for the Dodgers’ next 20 game winner end in 2011? The answer to that question, like the query into whether the team can be a playoff contender this year, appears to rest on the talented left arm of the young Texan Kershaw. Perhaps the combination of another dominant (don’t let the 13 win total in 2010 fool you…Kershaw was tremendous last year) year for the lefty and a little better luck will mean that September’s schedule will include a celebration of another Dodger pitcher joining the 20 win club.
From A(lston) to Z(immerman) 