Optimism abounds as the Washington Nationals begin spring training play this afternoon. With a deep and talented roster, the Nationals are considered by many to be the odds on favorite to win it all in 2013. 

If history is a guide, however, the 2013 version of the Nats will have a tough time replicating the Major League leading 98 win total they achieved in the magical 2012 season.   Since 1983, 42 teams have won at least 98 games in a season.  Only five of those teams won more games in the following season.   The New York Mets won 98 games in their breakthrough 1985 season before dominating the National League with 108 in 1986 en route to a World Championship.  Four years later, the Oakland A’s improved from 99 wins in 1989 to 103 in 1990.  The Atlanta Braves did the trick twice; first improving from 98 wins in 1992 to 104 in 1993, and then winning 106 in1998 following a 101 win season in 1997.   The last team to improve from a 98 win plus season was the Oakland A’s, who won 103 games in 2002 following a 102 win season in the previous year. 

Since 1983, seven 98 plus win teams have seen their win totals decrease by at least 20 games in the subsequent season.  The biggest drop during this time period came for the 1984 Chicago White Sox, who won 25 fewer games than they had in their division winning 1983 campaign.    Last year’s Philadelphia Phillies became the first team in nine years to experience such a decline, winning 21 fewer games than they had in 2011.

On average, 98 plus win teams have won 9.3 fewer games in the following season.  The well-stocked Nationals are hoping to buck that trend this year.

CENTER OF ATTENTION

Many Nationals’ fans are eagerly awaiting the debut of centerfielder Denard Span in a Washington uniform.  Most commentators belief that Span’s arrival will bring a serious upgrade to the Nats’  defense in centerfield.  But at least according to one advanced defensive metric, their defense in the center of the outfield was in excellent hands in 2012.

Last year, rookie Bryce Harper recorded a National League leading plus 22 in Rdrs (defensive runs saved above average).   Michael Bourn of Atlanta (plus 21) was the only other National League full-time centerfielder who came close to the talented rookie’s production in this category.  The full National League results in this category are shown below (with each team’s leader in games played in centerfield listed):

Harper-  Wash       plus 22

Bourn-  Atl             plus 21

Young-  Az             plus 12

Maybin-  SD          plus 9

Gomez-  Mil           plus 4

Torres- NYM        plus 4

Jay-  Stl                   plus 2

Stubbs-  Cin          plus 2

Campana- CHC    zero

Victorino-  Phl    minus 3

McCutchen  Pit    minus 4

Bonifacio-  Mia     minus 6

Pagan-  SF               minus 6

Schafer- Hou        minus 10

Fowler- Col           minus  12

Kemp- LAD           minus 17

The Nats’ new man in center wasn’t lacking in this category, posting a plus 20 Rdrs while playing for the Twins last season.

NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN

Free agent acquisition Rafael Soriano adds to the Nationals’ riches in the bullpen, and looks primed to be one of the National League’s dominant closers this year.  While Soriano has spent the bulk of his career in the American League, he has played in the Senior Circuit for three seasons and has been quite successful while doing so.   As National Leaguer, Sorinao has posted WHIP (0.977) and K/9 (10.5) numbers that are superior to his overall career numbers (WHIP- 1.046, K/9 9.4).    One matchup that will be interesting to watch this year is when Soriano goes up against Atlanta’s slugging second baseman Dan Uggla.  Uggla has hit three homers in 13 at bats against Soriano, the most round trippers the hard throwing reliever has allowed against any one player.